Category Archives: Alec’s mailbox

Alec's mailbox

Third time unlucky for our Mooi River studio as cable thieves strike thrice

Mooi River's able thieves did a comprehensive job the third time around. Not only did they rip out their normal copper wire target (the thick black cable hanging from the telephone pole) but took all the wire, commercially useless ones included, between the pictured pole and the next five. Some locals reckon it's more than just theft - sabotage perhaps?

Mojalefa Moorosi writes:

Dear Alec

I’m one of the listeners of money web show on SAfm. Thank you for the informative programme and I hope we won’t lose the programme due to  cable theft. I’m looking for a website that publishes the daily JSE share price report, same as the one published by The Citizen newspaper  that I can subscribe. To get a newspaper with a JSE report I have to travel 90 km. I do not buy the daily Sun or The Sowetan because they do not publish the JSE price report. I’m still saving to buy an ipad so that I can subscribe to newspapers that publish JSE report.

 

****

Thanks for your mail. It gives me the opportunity to explain events of the past couple weeks which have resulted in me joining the commuting set, travelling to Johannesburg on Mondays and back to the farm Fridays.

While we were in Davos, a neighbour called to ask whether we still had phone lines at home. We soon discovered that cable thieves who had been plaguing the district has struck those of us on the north western side of the town of Mooi River in the KZN Midlands. I contacted Telkom’s media relations supremo Pynee Chetty in a bit of a panic, asking who to talk to about getting the service re-instated. The cables are critical for our satellite studio on the farm to connect through to the Moneyweb main studio in Johannesburg – microwave and satellite can do the job too, but as soon as bad weather hits (a regular occurrence on our neck of the woods) the signal breaks. So we have relied on Telkom’s ISDN network for the past two years.

Pynee and his Telkom guys were brilliant. The day after we arrived back from Europe a delighted Telkommer called on the landline – the team had reinstalled the service and KZN’s only rural radio studio was back. That was Saturday at 2.30pm. Despite intensive patrols from Telkom’s security team and our excellent local armed response company Nsele Security, on Sunday night the thieves struck again, ripping out the cable for the second time.

So it was up to Johannesburg for the Monday night’s show and after thinking it through we decided to avoid the risk and make plans for me to start commuting. Just as well as it turned out. I set out on the annual post-Davos roadshow, arriving home on Thursday to notice a Telkom cable jointer was at it again – repairing the wires, this time replacing the valuable copper cable with thin wire that is apparently of no commercial value. Late Friday afternoon brought a mini celebration as the lines clicked on again. The excitement lasted all of three hours. The next morning brought that dreaded modem dead-light, a sure sign that the cable had gone again. Despite alarms on the cable, the low commercial value of the replacement and continuous patrols, the cable attackers had returned. This time they did a complete job of it, ripping out all the wires one usually finds between the telephone poles.

There are plenty of theories doing the rounds ranging from political to commercial sabotage. One opinionated fellow told me the cable cutting was being done by Julius Malema’s allied “he hates KZN you know,” while another equally far fetched suggestion was that Telkom’s competitor Neotel, which has started to offer services in the area, was behind the sabotage. At some point the truth is sure to out, but for the forseeable future, the the Moneyweb SAFM radio show will come to you direct from our Melrose Arch studios. No fear – it takes more than cable thieves to shut us up.

On the other question, I don’t know of any newspaper that has an online share prices page that’s the same as they publish in print. But you can get all the share price information you need from Moneyweb’s Click A Company and Daily Indicators section. Sharenet and Fin 24 also have plenty of share price information so try them too. And if you find anything that someone else has which we could introduce on Moneyweb, please let me know and we’ll work on providing the same.

 

Alec's mailbox

An open letter to Mercantile Bank’s CEO David Brown

Go this letter today from Nick Gerakis who has some very relevant points about the possible acquisition of Mercantile Bank minority shareholders. Well worth reading:

 

Dear Mr David Brown,

I have been accumulating Mercantile shares for the last 10 years.

I also have advised family members close friends and other investors to buy shares in Mercantile having the faith that the bank is backed by the biggest and well known Caixa Geral de Depositos Portuguese bank will do well, especially after your appointment as CEO of Mercantile.Bank Holdings Ltd.

With great disappointment we read JSE Sens on the 5th of January 2012 :

“Shareholders are advised that the Board of Directors of the Company has resolved to make an offer to minority shareholders to acquire all of their Mercantile securities…”

Some of your comments on the 9th January 2012 in the Business Day:

Mr Brown said a listing on the local bourse worked well, for example when a company wanted to raise capital. Currently, he said, the company had no interest in doing that as it was well capitalised. In the interim period to June Mercantile had a capital adequacy ratio of about 26%, more than 2,5 times the required 10%.

On Mercantile de-listing, Mr. Brown said: “On the assumption that we got all the approvals from the authorities and assuming that the offer we made to the minorities was accepted then clearly that means the minorities’ shareholding would be bought back in full. (A de-listing) would ultimately be the result subject to minorities accepting the offer.”

Mr Brown said the buyback had nothing to do with any change in group strategy or Caixa Geral ’s commitment to the bank: “If (they) wanted to sell the bank they would not have to de-list it. Caixa Geral already has 92% control.”

With courtesy from Moneyweb I include certain quotes from your interview dated the 17th of January 2012 with Alec Hogg and David Shapiro.

DAVID BROWN: No, no. We walked away from the Sasfin deal long before that. That was round about August 2010, where we had approached Sasfin and we both put out  cautionaries at that stage and after a lot of discussions we decided to terminate discussions and both parties put out the consequences of that to the market. But that was round about August/September 2010.

The only thing we currently have in the market is we put out a cautionary recently to say that it was our board’s intention to make an offer to minorities to acquire minorities, and that further information would follow. That certainly went out last week.

And then today we put out just a trading statement which basically said that we are in a closed period – our December results we are saying on a comparative basis are expected to increase between 15% and 25%. So those are the only two, let’s say, news items that we’ve got in the market. There’s nothing else.

ALEC HOGG: Right. Let’s just get this one straight, because sometimes we get all excited and then presume you guys are busy negotiating behind closed doors. But in the meantime you’ve completely rejected it anyway. Bidvest made an unsolicited bid, you said “No, thank you”. The parent, Caixa, is now itself looking to buy out the roughly 8% of the company that it doesn’t own. It hasn’t put a price on that yet, but I see the share price has reacted quite nicely – it’s up to 35c today. And of course your trading update today shows that everything is going well at Mercantile.

DAVID BROWN: One small correction. I agree with everything you’ve said, except the offer to minorities has emanated from Mercantile, not from CGD. So we have said that it’s our board’s intention to make an offer to minorities as opposed to our parent company.

ALEC HOGG: But it means the same thing, surely?

DAVID BROWN: The net effect is the same, the only difference is obviously with us making the offer if it were successful we would fund and pay for the offer.

ALEC HOGG: But a 92% shareholder – the fact of the matter is there is going to be an offer to minorities. That we know. We just don’t know the price.

DAVID BROWN: Absolutely. As I say, that’s certainly our intention, and we are going through the process because what we said in our cautionary is that it’s subject to all the required approvals. So we are busy with the process and when we are ready to make further communication to the market            around that particular process we will do so. In the meantime what we’ve done is put out the trading statement.

ALEC HOGG: David Brown. David Shapiro, OK, we are both back onside nowJoffe’s not going to get Mercantile Bank, it seems, and on the other hand this has been one of the better performing shares in the past year – up 65%. Is there still some upside, given that there’s another offer coming to shareholders?

DAVID SHAPIRO: Well, it’s going to be interesting what price they make that offer at I think there could be a very active minority out there who won’t let them get away with it. But once you own 92% of the company, it doesn’t really matter what you pay for the balance of 8%. So I think they’ll be quite liberal in the price.

ALEC HOGG: 40, 50c?

DAVID SHAPIRO: Yes, the share price is 35c – I think they’ve got to make it an offer that you won’t refuse, you can’t refuse. … If you are a small punter I would do the arbitrage. In other words, I would say that it’s got to be an aggressive pricing. And look, there’s a lot of cash behind it. It’s a business well funded at the moment, so I’m sure it’ll be a good offer.

According to Business Day dated 24th January 2012 Head lines “SA bankers see earnings bounce as gloom lifts by the strongest rise in fee income for retail banks since the start of the financial crisis in 2008″ and the latest trading statements earning increases from Mercantile(15%-25%), ABSA(18%-22%) and Nedbank(23%-28%) confirms that.

Mercantile Bank Holdings Ltd is involved in services to the niche markets in retail, commercial, corporate and alliance banking.

My question to you is that I know Mercantile will do well now and in the future. I believed in the company’s future and therefore invested.

Why are now being discriminated against as minority shareholders, when the prospects looks so good?

Why are existing shareholders not be given the option to remain shareholders of the bank even after delisting from the JSE?

Please consider this a definite option, as I am positive the other minorities are also appalled at the current happenings of the company.

Thanking you in anticipation,

I remain,

Yours faithfully

NN Gerakis

gann@absamail.co.za

Alec's mailbox

Greetings from Germany – and an insider offers perspective on the Frankie’s saga

Walking around container depots isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I'm fascinated. Am getting an up-close look at Imperial Group's European logistics operations and 13 years on it's clear Bill Lynch's vision to get a toehold in Germany (it's become a rather large chunk now) is paying off. Have been impressed by pretty much everything I've seen here in the Ruhr. Will be blogging about it when we get home tomorrow.

The Frankie’s saga has certainly caught the imagination. There are a number of really well informed comments under my original story that are worth having a look at – some pro-Woolies but most anti. I still think the Woolies CEO Ian Moir is a decent man who has been misinformed – and that once he gets a handle on the true facts, he’ll act appropriately.  Whatever the future holds in that regard, focus on the issue has certainly opened many eyes up to realities of retail in South Africa. In that context, here’s the email I received from someone who prefers to call themself “Informed Retail Source”.

We’re on our way home to SA tonight after spending a couple days at the Imperial Group’s German operations. Been a fascinating diversion, and appropriate too considering that the future of the European Union is in the hands of the Germans. I’ll be applying my mind to the subject over the next couple days – before writing my post-Davos wrap-up – but from the guys here you get the feeling that Chancellor Angela Merkel is offering the Greeks one last chance: Get your fiscal house in order, submit to Germanic-type financial discipline, or we’ll turf you out of the union!  As one of the German executives I have met here put it:”You don’t just fire an employee. You first give them every opportunity to change. But if they don’t want to change their ways, then you must let them go.” Whether the Greeks know this is their last chance is a moot point. The overwhelming view here is that they should have been kicked out of the EU two years ago. And that they will certainly be turfed out in the next month or so.

Here’s contribution on Frankie’s:

Hi Alec ,

Interesting article regarding the soft drinks furore surrounding Woolworths and Frankie’s. The article sheds some interesting light on Woolworths practice and whilst the perspective is valid the business which Woolworths runs particularly regarding its food operations is open to this particular approach.

Essentially Woolworths built its food retailing operations around the “quality proposition” that has attracted many housewives and families over the years.  This has allowed it to gain a foothold in products where branded goods from major manufacturers predominate as the shopper buys the proposition offered.

The crux of this does mean that Woolworths will look at the products in the market and their team will ask themselves the following : 

1.       Can I make an equal or better product than what is currently on offer ?

2.       Is the trend worth taking advantage of ?  I.E Retro as Mr Moir alluded to

So you might ask why not just stock Frankies, the answer lies in the commercial side of the business.  Often major retailers such as Woolworths will make more money in pure percentage terms from selling their own brands (Holds true for all retailers, Pick n Pay, Clicks, Shoprite Checkers, Spar etc, all have this as a strategy to varying degrees).  It keeps major suppliers on their toes and allows the consumer a variety of products.

The two questions I alluded to earlier are also the filter they use when stocking “branded products”.  That is why you see limited branded goods. Of course your favourites like All Gold Tomato Sauce will get through as many have tried to mimic it and failed to gain a foothold in the local market (e.g. Heinz Ketchup).  You are never going to see Illovo Sugar or Sunfoil cooking oil making an appearance on Woolworths shelves !!!

So as you can see the practice is clearly there, coincidence – clearly not !!!!

Which brings me on to the second part of the story.  If the practice is there and it is the modus operandi, then Woolworths has a responsibility to ensure that they don’t encroach on the brand identity of products in the market that they look to imitate.  Hence Plain Rice in a 2kg packet should not bear a close resemblance to Tastic Rice 2kg. 

The reality is that in this example it seems clear that Woolworths has overstepped the mark, for their own commercial gain as illustrated above.  The cinnamon flavour debate is secondary and easily challenged and in my opinion is exactly the reason why it was left out of the ASA submission.  Woolworths would challenge them by using numerous examples (Cherry Cola from Coke in the UK, Vanilla Coke in South Africa a couple of years ago), it’s very hard to claim a flavour as your own !!!! 

Hope this perspective helps !!!!!

 

 

Alec's mailbox

Where’s Richemont on Click A Company – and help on MTN Zakhele?

Iqbal wants help understanding the MTN Zakhele deal - and has been battling to find Richemont on Moneyweb's Click A Company

Got this mail today from Iqbal: 

I am an avid fan of yours and religiously follow your blog as well as the daily Moneyweb mails.
 I have 2 questions that I cant find answers to and am hoping you may be able to help. I am a novice investor and have been doing quite a bit of reading lately and am really eager to start trading soon. I have been “paper trading” for quite a while now and am kicking myself as most of the stocks I would have invested in have grown between 70 and 100%.
 Q1. I bought MTN shares a while back when they were offering the shares to all previously disadvantages citizens. These shares were issued at a discounted rate and we were told that if we hold on to it for a year or longer we would 10% extra. I still have these shares but am confused as to how these shares work. The dividends I receive are a fraction of what normal MTN shares payout. If I am to sell, what price would I get for it? The market price or a price relative to what I paid for it? Do you recommend holding onto these shares or selling them to trade up?
 Q2. I have been following Richemont for quite a while but cant find it on the Moneyweb Click-a-Company. How does one go about buying this share?
 Thanking you in advance.
***********
Alec replies: Thanks for the support. Great stuff on your simulated trading but be careful to translate paper trading profits into what might happen in the real world.
As for the questions: We covered the MTN Zakhele offer in great detail on Moneyweb at the time of the launch. There’s plenty of info on the site which you’ll quickly pick up by Googling Moneyweb MTN Zakhele. To short circuit the system, one of the more enlightening interviews was the one my colleague Micel Schnehage had with Nozipho January-Bardill – click here to access it.
On the second point, it is a bit confusing because Moneyweb’s system uses the full name of the company which in this instance is Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA. So it’s to be found under C rather than R. Again to help you, click here to get there direct.
Alec's mailbox

Smart, 25 and looking for share investment ideas

Laura wants to know whether it is time to invest in a buy-to-rent home. I've got some strong ideas on this subject

Laura sent this email: I am a regular follower of Moneyweb and more recently your blog. I enjoy the more personal articles and am in awe if your success. I was sad to learn of (your son) Travis` passing, as we were in the same class for a few years at Mondeor Primary. He really had a great mind.

I have a keen interest in the financial markets being an actuarial analyst at one of the banks. What is your opinion of how the markets will fare this year?

On a more personal level, with what I studied and my own stubbornness, I have yet to consult a financial consultant regarding my finances. I currently invest monthly in a unit trust and some Satrix funds. What shares would you suggest for me as a 25 year old to start a good investment? I considered a buy to rent property, but I didn’t want to worry about maintenance and upkeep. I now am in the market for a small property for myself. I have a deposit saved up but think it is time for me to start investing in some shares as well.

 

*****

Alec replies:  

Hi Laura 

Good to hear from you. I miss Travis terribly but with great affection. He was the kind of son any father would be privileged to have known. I learnt much from him, perhaps most from his passing. I’m sure he’s resting peacefully. Delighted to see the Mondeor Primary graduates continue to do so well. Your headmaster Dave Shute was an unsung hero. Sadly, educationalists so often are.

On your investment questions, one never knows with markets and a year is a long time. But all the guys who do it for a living think there’s a lot better value offshore than in SA right now. Had a fascinating chat to Investec’s John Biccard today. His Value Fund is busy polling its unit holders to increase the percentage it may hold offshore. He started moving in that direction in September 2010. As John is one of the best you’ll find, I’d take heed.

Starting your own share portfolio is a brilliant idea. It might be an idea to invest through the JSE’s IDX programme into the global pharma majors like Glaxo and Bayer; and also my favourites Berkshire Hathaway and Apple. You need a local flavour, too, and here right now I’d be with Barloworld, Bidvest and Afrimat. Satrix is also a good place to keep some money.

If you’re thinking of property, there’s really no rush. The buy-to-let market is likely to bump along the bottom for some while yet. Best to invest there when the interest rate cycle peaks and rates haven’t even started rising yet. Similarly with your own home. Take your time. It’s very much a buyer’s market and will be for a few years yet.

Alec's mailbox

What shares to buy with the Xmas Bonus?

In response to Robert's email, I've offered some shares to add to that Xmas Stocking (and others where it's time to take profits)

Robert K writes via email:

Hi Alec,

Big fan of the show and have missed my daily dose of SAFM Market Update the last few days :)

I am emailing for a bit of investment advice if you don’t mind.

I am wanting to invest my bonus in some share but I am not 100% sure where to find value at the moment.

I already have MPC, Curro (which has done well for me), Steinhoff and Old Mutual as well as Satrix Top 40 and Stanlib unit trusts.

Are there any shares you would recommend? I have been looking at AGL but they are very expensive although I do see value there.

Thanks in advance and have a wonderful christmas and new years :)

*******

Hi Robert

Thanks for the support – glad to be missed!
I’d be inclined to take profits on the Curro and Old Mutuals. They’ve both run really hard and are overdue for a breather.

Also, am a bit worried about the Steinhoff/Jooste/PSG deal announced last week where Markus Jooste and Christo Wiese are swapping their 20% of PSG for Steinhoff shares (at a discount to the current market price). What possible motivation can there be for Steinhoff to own 20% of a financial services company?  I’m sure Jooste has his reasons but this group has grown so fast and into so many areas that it is bound to have made a costly mistake here or there. Besides, a really complex business and I prefer my companies easy to understand!So I’d be leaving Steinhoff shares to someone else right now.

As for what to buy, offshore tech giants Google and Apple are great long-term purchases; and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway hasn’t been this cheap for a long time. You’re able to buy the stocks through the IDX programme available through most JSE stockbrokers. Get the benefit there of being Rand Hedges, too, without all the hassle of SARB permission to invest abroad.

On the local front, a few smaller stocks that I like are Accentuate, ARB, Afrimat and Village. If you prefer playing in the bigger counters then Barloworld and JD Group are worth considering. Have blogged on them – have linked them to the stories so just click on the name to go there. But there’s no need to rush into the shares. Take your time and buy them on weakness.

And go have a Happy Xmas too!

Alec's mailbox

IDC boss apologises – takes steps to ensure there’s no repeat

The IDC's chief Geoff Qhena - my faith was fulfilled when he took steps to ensure appalling behaviour towards Barry Willows won't happen again.

Over the years, I’ve enjoyed a good rapport with Geoffrey Qhena, managing director of the Industrial Development Corporation. So I was hopeful that there would be a happy ending after Barry Willows’ scathing feedback of his meeting with IDC staff. He did not disappoint. The email was sent to Geoff late on Friday and he responded today – with an appropriate apology for his staff’s behaviour and a commitment to ensure it does not happen again. Faith restored.

Here’s Geoffrey Qhena’s mail received today:

Dear Alec

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

The team ‘s conduct was  unbecoming,  and I apologise to the writer of the letter  Barry Willows. I  followed  up  to make sure this does not happen again.

This unfortunate  turn of events was brought about by miscommunication between two  IDC business units about the appointment, but  this  is no excuse for  inappropriate behaviour.

The IDC is aware of CISCO project and had engaged  Murray & Roberts in  an attempt to avoid closure of the plant.

The message  is clear to all at the IDC;  we seek to work together with potential partners to find solutions that will enable South Africa to maintain and increase our industrial capacity whilst creating new job opportunities.

Best regards,

MG Qhena

Alec's mailbox

IDC’s no-show boss compounds error by sending SMS-obsessed deputies

Barry Willows writes: Your article of today was just the tonic I needed. You’ve put my disappointment into perspective.
Let me elaborate.
We are a company that includes the ex-President of Mittal, Asia & the Pacific Rim.We are in negotiation to buy/rescue Cape Iron & Steel Co. (CISCO) from Murray & Roberts. Time is critical, as they are maintaining the plant in “quick start-up mode”, as should they shut down, it would take +/- 8 months to restart.
We scheduled a meeting a month ago with the IDC top brass to present our proposal yesterday, the 18th November. The main person’s PA said he would be a little late, but  did not pitch at all.
They sent two women from the Green Energy sector that had no knowledge of steel or manufacturing, & the two Heads of Mining and Manufacturing were playing/texting/googling their cell phones, showing each other whatever was on their phones, giggling and nodding approval at whatever was on their phones.
At the end of the presentation we asked if they had any questions, and their responses were so feeble that I realized they were totally disinterested from the moment we arrived.
They basically humored us by attending.
I have never felt so belittled, insulted, disrespected or been so upset in a business meeting before. Our Indian steel making expert was treated like dirt.
Anyway, your article has given me new vigor. We will approach a Private Equity group and get CISCO without these clowns.
Thanks for the motivation to carry, on as it is a phenomenal  business that will re-create employment which currently has been lost.
This alone is reason to keep plugging away, but this time we will box clever, and we will only approach entities that are serious about business,  the future of SA and our children.
Ironically, we are going to EL tomorrow for a meeting with Numsa on Monday who have asked us to rescue Scaw Metal’s foundry in Dimbaza where 318 jobs are about to be lost.
Keep up the good work. Your outstanding articles are truly appreciated.
PS* We wish Caitlin well in her Event Management business.
It is sure to be a huge success.   I have a suggestion for a name. “Hogg the Limelight”. Ha Ha.

Alec’s response: This echoes something I’ve seen throughout my career. The guys at the top of good intentions, make decisions and send some memos. But they forget that nothing gets done through words and directives; that unless there is buy-in throughout the organisation, the best intended plans fall flat. Especially when you’re dealing with a group of people (public servants) who have taken the position either because they cannot find something better outside, or because they crave the job security State employment provides.

The way you and your partners were treated is appalling. Insulting. Disgusting. Especially considering the cell phone obsessed attendees are being paid with our hard-earned tax contributions.  At the entrepreneurship conference I attended in Cape Town this week, Dr Ajit Ranade of India’s giant Aditya Birla Group said he was amazed that we have such Big Government in SA. He says the Indians believe their Government is too big but by comparison with SA, they are well off. Ajit explained that India has 20 times SA’s population; five times its economy but a Government that consumes only double SA’s. Given the way you and your partners were treated, we know why.

I’ll be sending your mail and my reply to the CEO of the Industrial Development Corporation. Hopefully he’ll kick some butts right out of the IDC.     

 

Barry wrote back: The sad fact here is that our Indian partner has such an array of skills in the primary steel-making industry.He has written 11 Internationally published articles and won numerous awards. He has 23 years of experience that money can’t buy.
In a country where steel makers are becoming as endangered as rhinos, he is prepared to share his knowledge and experience for free so-as to resurrect an industry that has an abundance of raw materials to cater for such. Such is his passion.
Are we really so ignorant that we are prepared to lose such a talent (who by the way is being wooed by Luksami Mittal as we speak to come back to Asia), without actually even realizing it?
If so, then heaven help us.

 

*****

 

Alec's mailbox

Pale, male, 41 with no degree – what now?

Alec Hogg (right) with one of his heroes, author Nassim Taleb whose bestseller Fooled by Randomness contains some of the reasons why this blog will never carry interviews with "successful" traders

Malcolm emailed: Dear Alec. About 1996 I wrote you an email and you were kind enough to reply. At that point in my life I had my own little restaurant in Middleburg, Mphumalanga. I wrote to you about this strange phenomenon of money rushing into USD’s and feeling the affects as part of the third team of the  global economy. Back then Zaptronix was making headlines. Being only 27, after interest rates rising to 25%, two cars being stolen, a robbery at the house and an attempted hijacking I thought life might be worth more in the UK and sold up and got out, only to return 4 years later. Now I’m white, male and 41, have a lot to offer in experience but have no degree not that it matters, can’t get a job so have to market me.With this in mind would you be interested in having a blog that interviews the traders?

 

Malcolm let me in so here’s a bit of my philosophical side. First the specific question: No, I won’t write a blog interviewing traders. Rather I’d recommend you read Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Taleb which explains in a logical way why there is no sure-fire way to make money from trading; certainly not in the investment markets. You might get lucky for a period and think you have a system. But life is too complex and too random for any “system” to work indefinitely. So by interviewing traders all I’d be doing would be encouraging those who’ve made a few bucks to believe it was their skill rather than dumb luck that got them ahead. Allowing them to prognosticate about their brilliance and, even worse, encourage others to follow. Very dangerous.

On the broader question of being 41, pale, male and unwanted by the market, some home truths. Before the Industrial Revolution took hold, 95% of human beings were self-employed, making a living by specialising in something they could do better than anyone else. Society is heading back there. Hierarchical businesses run by know-it-all CEOs (who are actually know-very-littles) are on the wane. Companies are contracting in specialists rather than hiring legions of drones.

So my advice is to find what you’re passionate about, that thing you’d be happy to do for free. Throw everything you’ve got into it. And if it is something that doesn’t pay well, accept the reality that there’s more to life than money and adjust your lifestyle accordingly. That way you’ll get the liberating experience and self respect of knowing your fruits come directly from your labour of love.   

Alec's mailbox

Feedback on questions around Thursday night’s emergency landing

    • Safely home at Graceland, Jet, yours truly and our housekeeper Mayvis Mdluli. If we're looking pale it's sleep deprivation - and maybe an aftershock of Thursday night's "adventure"

      Lots of questions and comments from Facebook and Twitter; Here’s a selection and my responses (in italics)

      Kevin Strydom asked:  If they gave you a free ticket would you use it?
      If SA AIrlink gave me a free ticket it would snow again in Mooi River before the end of the year. Any bookie would offer 100/1 on either event! Seriously though, one of the things that my son Travis’s death in 2008 taught me was that death is really just another stage in our life – and none of us know when our time will come or why. If I was meant to go on Thursday, there was nothing I or our brilliant flight crew could have done about it. Ditto the next time. I’ll happily fly SA Airlink again. Their crews are the friendliest and the ground staff at the PMB airport have become like old friends. 

      ***

      I missed the radio show on Friday night and Teddy Gaetsewe wanted to know whether I was on sick leave.
      Nope Teddy, just dog tired. We got less than three hours sleep Thursday night (in bed at 1am; woken up for the flight at 3:45am)  and because of an early morning flight to Jhb on Wednesday and a hectic schedule while we were there, not much sleep the previous two nights either. We only got home to Mooi River around 1pm on Friday afternoon so there was no way I’d have been able to research and present the show that evening, But back on Monday, a wiser man I hope.   


      ****
      A welcome message on Facebook from Anton Gillis who wrote: “Hi Alec, I work for Protea Hotels and am based in Melrose Arch. I just watched your incredible youtube video. I was thinking, why don’t we host a “toast” for the incredible pilot and his crew. The local media has been pretty hush about everything. Protea will gladly sponsor a round or two of bubbly to celebrate life!”
      Hi Anton That’s an amazingly generous offer. You’re right about the pilot and crew being amazing – and most of us on the flight believe we owe our lives to these young people. As virtually all of the passengers are from PMB and the crew could get there rather easily, I’d venture that the best venue would be the Protea Hilton. If you are able to put it together from your side I’ll approach SA Airlink’s CEO and KZN PR person (both of whom I have engaged with since the episode) to see whether they could put it together. I know they have everyone’s cell phone numbers so inviting the passengers shouldn’t be too difficult. And I have no doubt the Witness would find it newsworthy. Great idea. Will do whatever I can to help put it together.

      PS I send Anton’s mail and my response to the people at SA Airlink. The ball’s now in their court. 

      *****
      Christelle Geer, who was at school with Jeanette and I at Newcastle High back in the 1970s, is married to Cedric a fellow passenger we met after the drama. Our pilot Harm Kelderman, gave Cedric his wings as a momento. Christelle wrote on Facebook:  ”Hallo Alec and Jeanette, I am so relieved and grateful that all of you are alive and well. What an experience! And to ‘meet’ again in this way. Thanks for being there and sharing (I bet not a way of choice) this day with Cedric. I think that there are not many people who can claim to have had such an ordeal in their lifetime and still be alive to tell the story. Thank you for the youtube videos. It makes it real for the families who were not there to see it. Life is precious!
      Hi Christelle, Great to hear from you – and it was lovely to meet Cedric. I’m sure Harm’s pilot’s wings will be proudly displayed for the rest of his life! Really look forward to welcoming you to the Gallery. And if you like horses you’ll really enjoy having a look around the farm too. We’re trying to arrange a get together for the passengers and families in the near future, probably at the Protea in Hilton. Look forward to seeing you then. 

      *****

      PS I guess that at SA Airlink the pilots go by first names as I was variously told the pilot;s name was Harm (everyone got that right) Kellenburg; Van Rensburg; and Kallenburg. Was told by a viewer of the youtube video that his real name is Harm Kelderman. Have now changed all the bastardised versions of the man who saved the 72 passengers and three other crew members. Should you see one I missed, please let me know (alechogg@gmail.com)


Bad Behavior has blocked 1324 access attempts in the last 7 days.