alechogg.com

Here, courtesy of my trusty iPhone, is Buffett the Gold Slayer captured at the post Berkshire AGM presser last April. Warren is on the offensive, warning about a price bubble in gold like those he flagged on Internet stocks and US housing.

Anglogold Ashanti’s CEO Mark Cutifani is to local mining what John Biccard is to asset management. Biccard is the man other money managers would most trust to handle their savings. In mining, Cutifani’s astute management has raised the bar for an industry where performance was once measured by volume of rock through the mill rather than gold delivered.

The Australian-born head of Africa’s biggest gold producer has been walking on water lately. He took history’s biggest ever bet on the gold price by closing out the industry’s largest hedge book – at a cost of billions. As the gold price keeps steaming ahead, that decision continues to reward Anglogold Ashanti. In the three months to end December it added another $200m to the bottom line.

Cutifani was clearly feeling his oats during our chat this week after the release of his group’s December quarter results. Who could blame him? Apart from that $200m, costs were controlled, the company got more rands for its gold and the result was a fresh record for profit in any three months. Shareholders joined in the applause when hearing the yearend dividend had doubled.

Then I pressed a big fat red button called Warren Buffett.

The lionised chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, known universally as The Oracle of Omaha, is public enemy number one right now among gold diggers. A man whose mere mention sends share prices rocketing has become the most irritating of matadors for the gold bulls. He keeps warning about a bubble in bullion. And did it again this week arguing that gold is worthless because it produces nothing – and that anyone investing from a base of fear is doomed.

The latest edition of US business magazine Fortune carries a preview of Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders. Much of it is devoted to his arguing that the gold price is substantially overvalued. Buffett explains that all the gold ever mined would make a cube with 68-foot sides. At the current market price around $1 750 an ounce, that pile is worth $9.6 trillion. Says Buffett: “For that, we could buy all US cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually) plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money.”

Gold, he says, is in a bubble that’s identical to the two others he nagged about during the past 15 years – Internet stocks and US housing. Those warnings went largely unheeded, attracting comments and ridicule of an 81-year-old accused of having “lost it” and being “too old to understand.” But it’s the world’s most famous ukulele player who had the last laugh.

Prodding Cutifani on Buffett’s is like asking an honest cop for an opinion on Jackie Selebi. He couldn’t contain himself: “Warren’s been wrong for 5 000 years……it must be embarrassing to get it so wrong and I think that’s because he fundamentally doesn’t understand the gold sector.“

Cutifani says Buffett “doesn’t get it”. Coming from an industrial age background, he doesn’t understand affection built up over thousands of years by those in cultures who do “get it”. Primarily Asians with deep connections to the metal, people who value the beauty, art and poetry of gold: “It’s like trying to tell you why Lord Tennyson’s poetry is something beautiful to behold – if you can’t read, you can’t understand where the beauty is.”

Buffett’s cold logic against Cutifani’s argument for a beautiful, poetic metal? You make the call. But the miner’s enthusiasm is sure to be tempered when he takes a look at this week’s batch of SEC filings. They show his biggest shareholder, US asset manager John Paulson, has trimmed his holding for the second successive year. Paulson’s funds owned 9.73% of Anglogold Ashanti’s equity at end December 2011, down from 10.76% a year before and 11.83% at the end of 2009.

Put differently, Paulson sold Anglogold Ashanti shares worth $168m last year Or R1.3bn in local currency terms. A sale which may elevate SA-based asset manager Allan Gray to top of the mining company’s pops. Allan Gray has not yet reported its end-2011 holding but at December 2010, owned 8.31% of Cutifani’s company. The Cape based firm makes no secret of its continued liking for the asset class and, in particular, Anglogold Ashanti. So for the moment it’s Buffett and Paulson vs Cutifani and Gray. A tag team matchup to fill Soccer City. Many times over.

In the first 250 pages of the biography, Steve Jobs comes across as a spoilt brat. He gets a lot better with age. And proves Warren Buffett's point that the most important decision we make is selecting our life partner.

Walter Isaacson’s book on Apple’s Steve Jobs gets one feeling it’s a pity biographies begin, as they must, with the subject’s early years. After the first 200 pages, many will be tempted to throw away the tome, tiring of a brattish Jobs who typifies much of what the rest of the world dislikes about American businessmen. Narcissistic, immature, downright nasty – his dark side blunts the admiration we have for his obvious brilliance. But persevere, as I have, and a different picture starts to emerge. Nobody can fail to admire Jobs. As you watch him mature as a human being, you can easily start to actually like him.

What should have been the middle part of Steve Jobs’ life is riveting. For me, it mostly supports the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett’s belief that selecting one’s life partner is the most important decision you’ll make. On this score, Jobs excelled.  His watershed came in 1991 when he married the leggy blonde Laurene Powell. Until this point, he looked to be heading back to obscurity. With a post-script like: A talented guy who started Apple Computer; got kicked out because of an ego running riot; then bet his life on a cartoon company which also failed. Instead, Jobs’s life began turning from the point where Powell’s calming influence began. And he went on to revolutionise six different industries, having a greater impact on the world than any businessman of the modern era.

Appropriately, a lot of the heart of Jobs biography focuses on Pixar. After being booted out of Apple, California IT’s enfant terrible became fascinated by a niche software company owned by Star Wars creator George Lucas. What we now know as Pixar was, for Jobs, a perfect merger of art and technology. So he paid an effective $10m for 70% of the business, an investment that he sold just over a decade later for $5bn. A fairy-tale ending, but the roughest of rides. At one point Jobs had blown half the $100m he banked when selling his entire shareholding in Apple.

But as you turn the pages, Jobs’ success becomes increasingly likely. A quieter, more determined and overall more likeable man starts emerging in the early 1990s. Then, four years into his marriage to Powell, things start happening. In late 1995, his attention to detail (he helped re-shape the characters as much as any insider) and faith in the brilliant John Lasseter paid off big when Pixar’s Toy Story blasted film animation into the new century.

An even bigger triumph arrived the following year later when the last of a raft of post-Jobs era Apple CEOs asked the founder to return. Some 11 years after he had been booted off his beloved Cupertino campus, Jobs returned first as a consultant, then interim CEO (officially iCEO – he loved the i-letter) and eventually as the full time boss whose first action was to ask the entire board to resign (they did).

You have to wonder, though, whether any of this would have been possible without his union with Powell. Isaacson describes her as the perfect match for Jobs: “Tough enough to stand up to him, yet Zen-like enough to rise above turmoil. Well educated and independent, yet ready to make accommodations for him and a family. Down-to-earth, but with a touch of the ethereal. Savvy enough to know how to manage him, but secure enough to not always need to.”

We have only sketchy details about this wonder woman. Only 16 the 571 pages focus on Laurene. Isaacson’s had clearly decided to, foremost, chronicle Jobs the business disruptor. It’s a pity he didn’t delve more deeply into the out-of-hours partnership where the magic stemmed from. Knowing more about that side of the man’s life would have provided profound lessons for many boardroom inmates.

To criticise Isaacson’s work, though, is like finding fault with the Mona Lisa. Particularly once you get past page 200 or so. Every chapter provides lessons for the rest of us. Jobs’ ideas and statements, his business and life experiences, provide a feast to mull over at leisure.

So, three quarters of the way into the book, what are the major takeaways?

First, an appreciation that Jobs literally worked himself to death. After returning to Cupertino, for some years he chose to continue running his old love (Apple) and his new (Pixar). Jobs would leave home daily at 7am and return after 9pm so tired, he said, that he literally couldn’t speak. Jobs never smoked (well, not cigarettes anyway), did not drink alcohol and followed a regimented and healthy diet so never carried an extra ounce of fat. Yet he spent the last decade of his life fighting the cancer which last year took his life. As medical science advances, so does our understanding of the connection between stress and the Big C. Future generations are sure to shake their heads at modern executive lifestyles. And wonder how a genius like Jobs could have missed the obvious.

Another take-away is a re-inforcement of how it’s best to keep your mouth shut and let people wonder whether you’re an idiot rather than open it to prove you are. Like every great innovator through the ages, Jobs had an army of doubters. John Sculley, clearly feeling his oats after ousting Apple’s founder in 1986, proclaimed that Jobs’ strategy of using high tech to design and sell consumer products was “a lunatic plan……Apple will never be a consumer product company,” he claimed. Surprisingly, even though the world now has the Apple iPad, iPad, iPhone, iMac et al, Sculley still shows his face on the speaker circuit.

Then there was the regularly referenced faux pas by computer assembler Michael Dell who, when asked what Jobs should do when re-appointed to Apple in 1996, stated if it were him “I’d shut it down and give the money back to shareholders.” Jobs shot back by sending Dell an email which read “CEOs are supposed to have class. That’s an option you don’t own.”

The media, too, made some terrible calls. After the first of what are now almost 400 Apple Stores were opened, the US’s BusinessWeek ran a cover story with the headline “Sorry Steve. Here’s why Apple Stores won’t work.” Ahem. And then there is Jobs’s foe, former Disney CEO Michael Eisner, who sent an email that ended up in the LA Times dissing Pixar’s soon-to-be released Finding Nemo movie stating: “This will be a reality check for these guys. It’s OK, but nowhere near as good as their previous films.” Finding Nemo became Pixar’s biggest hit thus far, generating $868m at the box office. Until 2010 it was the most popular DVD of all time. Eisner was retired by the Disney board after a decade of animation flops.

In many ways, Pixar itself provides the best lesson for what we can learn from Jobs. His passion got him involved; he nurtured and supported the talent he spotted (especially John Lasseter); persevered long after most other investors would have dumped the business; became intimately involved with details, spending weeks working closely on the breakthrough hit Toy Story; and eventually he sold the company into the perfect home – Disney post Eisner – through a deal which multiplied his initial investment 500 fold.

Much as I’m looking forward to the final quarter of Isaacson’s masterpiece, it’s also with trepidation. Until this point the Jobs we’ve met is healthy and energetic. Helped by Laurene and his children, rough edges of the early years have worked away. He’s maturing into the kind of person we’d love to meet. Like every great biography, we feel we know him well, better perhaps than many of our physical friends. But there is no happy ending to this story. This is one of those times you really wish there could be.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt - data costs for Africans are "20 to 30 times" what Americans pay; fixing that will unleash another billion people into the digital age

Any African had to get excited about the goings-on at last month’s World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Everywhere the news was good.

The PWC CEO survey, for instance, showed African business leaders to be the only ones worldwide more confident than a year ago. And in one session after another, we got to see a wave of emerging African leaders who care more about their people than Swiss bank accounts.

Naspers’ bossman Koos Bekker, a regular at the Davos gathering, put it best during one of the well attended sessions assessing investment opportunities by explaining that Africa simply normalising. Finally breaking a vicious cycle of guilt-driven handouts by former colonisers fuelling widespread corruption. As democracy tightens its grip, the old style “Big Men of Africa” are being disposed of by voters. Ushering in more efficient allocation of resources that is translating into improved economic growth.

While most countries struggled through 2011, 45 of the 46 countries in Sub Saharan Africa posted positive economic growth. Another happy fact is that during the last decade, Africa gave the earth six of the top 10 performing economies. The continent, too, is the only one whose growth path did not get interrupted by the Global Financial Crisis.

Cynics, of course, will snipe about the low starting point. They will dismiss African exuberance as premature while millions still survive on handouts from the Rich North and where corruption remains endemic in many countries. Where do-gooders like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has upped its disease-combatting fund to $750m while fretting that’s still not nearly enough. All true. And all reflective of very real challenges at ground level.

But mountains are moved one rock at a time. And provided those stones are being removed, however slowly, you’re going in the right direction. So a big tick for the broad Africa rejuvenation box. What should be worrying us more as citizens of this continent is the needless foot shooting. The way obvious quick wins are lost through legislative incompetence. Including here in South Africa.

Among the highlights of my Davos week was a media round table with the top management of global giant Google – CEO Eric Schmidt plus lieutenants Nikesh Arora, Marissa Mayer and David Drummond. The theme of the hour and a half chat was how rapidly the internet is becoming mobile. In June 2011, for instance for the first time more people accessed Google Maps through the cell phones and iPad than via desktop computers. Half of those accessing Facebook are doing so through mobiles – with the trend suggesting it will reach 80% in five years.

I managed to pop a question around Google’s plans to expand its activities in Africa. Judged by other major corporation hunger for a bigger piece of the African pie, I waited pen at the ready for fresh info about how the “Don’t Be Evil” crowd wants to grab its slice. Instead, Schmidt’s smile turned to a scowl. Google’s not doing anything like as much as it wants to on the continent, he admitted, because it’s just not possible. Africans, he says, are forced to cough up “20 to 30 times what we (ie Americans) pay for data.”

That’s no misprint. Using Schmidt’s numbers, downloading information costing an American an inconsequential one dollar, would set an African back R150 to R225. What’s cheap and almost free elsewhere is a luxury here. Unless it’s addressed, the next technological wave, the next step-change in productivity, could pass us continent by. Putting a real spoke in the promise of Africa’s leapfrogging appeal.

How come we’re so out if step? Bekker, who seems to care less about pulling any punches nowadays, pointed out in a Davos session that as recently as 2000, South Africa had 50% of the continent’s total telephone connections. But: “Today we’re only number four in Africa – and the sole reason is poor Government policy and regulation.”

It’s this disconnect between well-meaning desires expressed by our political leaders and the practical reality which will keep feeding Afro-Pessimists.

What does it help to sign trade treaties when the difference between a one and an eight hour border crossing is determined one’s willingness to pay the official’s requested bribe? What is the point of pouring billions into infrastructure when criminals rip it out to sell at a fraction of what it cost taxpayers? Get the basics right, get priorities straight, and the rest will follow. If not, the grandest, best intentioned plans are doomed to failure.

Travelling around the world sounds glamorous. Provided SAA plays its part and you’re able to find a flight that accepts an upgrade with those Voyager miles, it can be. There’s little in the way of luxury to compare with a Business Class dinner, service, space and that lie-flat seat. But even going in style requires time. And when you’ve been doing the travelling I’ve done in the past fortnight, there’s little space to update the blog. Add in the implications of Telkom cable thieves hitting us twice in the space of a week, and you get the picture. But things are now back to normal and so will the regularity of the postings on this blog.

Today’s post is an absolute classic. One of those gems we all wish we’d written ourselves. Or, in this case, been the person doing the deeds. One of my regular correspondents, Tim Driman, tripped it along. Chris’s letter was published in the Personal Column of a Durban newspaper (Tim didn’t say whether it was The Mercury of The Daily News, but its what in the note that matters). I loved it. As will every other law abiding South African:

To the well dressed dude who tried to mug me on Durban Beachfront
three nights ago

I was the guy wearing the black denim jacket that you demanded that I
hand over along with my wallet, shortly after you pulled the knife on my
girlfriend & I, threatening our lives.

You also asked for my girlfriend’s purse, rings and earrings too.

I can only hope that you somehow come across this rather important
message.

First, I’d like to apologize for your embarrassment when I drew my
pistol after you took my jacket. The evening was not that cold, and I
was wearing the jacket for a reason.
My girlfriend had just bought me that Glock pistol for xmas, and we had
picked up a new ‘fast draw’ shoulder holster for it that very evening.
Obviously you agree that it is a very intimidating weapon when pointed
at your head wasn’t it, especially when I blasted that one and only shot
right past your right ear and out to sea?

I know it probably wasn’t fun walking back to wherever you’d come from
bare footed with your ear bleeding and ringing like a church bell, since
I made you leave your expensive shoes, Nokia cell phone, and wallet with
me. That prevented you from calling or running to your buddies to come
help mug us again.

After I called your mother, or “Mama” as you had her listed in your
cell, I explained the entire episode of what you’d done, fortunately she
spoke English too, and she seemed very shocked, said you worked at a
local bank and wouldnt do what I was telling her you had done. Anyway, I
then I went and filled up my petrol tank as well as four other people’s
in the petrol garage on your credit card. The guy with the big V8 Jeep
took R800 alone, and was extremely grateful!

I gave your shoes to a homeless guy outside Joe Kools, along with all
the cash in your wallet. That made his day!

I then threw your wallet into the big 7 series Beemer that was parked
at the curb … after I broke the windshield and side window and keyed
the entire driver’s side of the car. I know that this bling car belongs
to a local enforcer and bouncer.

Later, I called a bunch of phone sex numbers from your cell phone.
Vodacom just now shut down the line, although I only used the phone for
a little over a day now, so what’s going on with that?

Earlier, I managed to get in two threatening phone calls to the local
ANC office and one to the bureau of state security (intelligence
services) too, while mentioning President Zuma and Julius Malema as my
probable targets. The state security guy seemed really intense and we
had a nice long chat – I guess while he traced your number etc.

In a way, perhaps I should apologize for not killing you …. but I
feel this type of retribution is a far more appropriate punishment for
your threatened crime. I wish you well as you try to sort through some
of these rather immediate pressing issues, and can only hope that you
have the opportunity to reflect upon, and perhaps reconsider the career
path you’ve chosen to pursue in life.

Remember, next time you might not be so lucky.
Have a good day!

Thoughtfully yours,

Chris

Mike and Paula Schmidt outside the Frankie's plant at their farm near Balgowan. Social media, specifically Facebook and Twitter, let them take on a giant and win.

Frankie’s, the mouse that roared, has prevailed against retailing giant Woolworths. It’s been a stunning victory. The tiny rodent has beaten the elephant. Frankie’s won because of the social networks that drew its friends together. An army of mice that overcame the elephantine opponent one tweet at a time.

It has been South African business’s first real social media war. An example of the way public opinion is  likely to be shaped in the age of Facebook and Twitter. As Woolworths CEO Ian Moir put it: “The world has changed. You need to become far nimbler. After what happened with Frankie’s, we are better prepared.”

Frankie’s founder Mike Schmidt is ecstatic. He called me three times on Wednesday – first to share Frankie’s victory at the Advertising Standards Authority; then to say Woolies’ soft drink supplier, Chill Beverages, was dumping crates of stock at below cost from the factory gates; then with news that Woolworths’ had announced it would be taking the entire range off its shelves.

The last call heralded the end of the month and a half war. Goliath has withdrawn, permanently, from the battlefield. And it did so just hours after the Advertising Standards Authority ruled Woolies “had deliberately and intentionally copied” the Frankie’s slogan Good Old Fashioned.

It was an embarrassing setback for the retailer, but hardly a death blow. Woolies could have put new labels on the bottles that omitted the words Good Old Fashioned and the war would continue. Instead, its CEO Moir went much further, publishing a notice of unconditional surrender on the Woolworths’ Facebook Page. That helped the retailer regain face. And more. The reaction from the public was hugely positive. Moir was credited with having done the right thing.

Many who threatened to never again darken a Woolworths door said they would return. Paula Frances Schmidt, after whom the Frankie’s brand is named, will probably be among them. Her once-again famous husband – a talented singer, he was runner up in SA’s 1980s equivalent of Idols – told me: “Ian Moir was incredibly brave. Ethically and morally he took the right decision. He deserves every congratulation he’s received.”

For his part Moir now admits the company erred: “We took too long to react. After Frankie’s complained, we should immediately have said we’ll investigate its allegations. We didn’t. That was our mistake. Next thing it all went viral. After that I don’t think we were ever going to win back the public.”

The direct financial cost, Moir says, was small as the soft-drink range generated less than 0.01% of Woolies’ turnover. Not so the reputational risk. Once the story caught fire on Facebook and Twitter, the likelihood of permanent damage soared. Moir says lessons are being absorbed: “We’re becoming very focused on social media. We must get better at it. Facebook is going to be a major part of our digital strategy going forward – we had a lot of people talking to us on the Frankie’s issue and we’ll invest resources to ensure the dialogue continues.”

For Schmidt, the past month and a half has been an emotional roller-coaster which began with the real prospect of taking out a second mortgage to put up the R500 000 needed to tackle Woolies in court. His initial intention was to do so to ensure people didn’t think the no name brand was bottled by Frankie’s. But as the battle joined, he turned away from a traditional legal route to focus instead on the court of public opinion. He admits without social media “we would have been in a very difficult position. It was critical.”

And his learnings? A year ago Schmidt commissioned a Pietermaritzburg IT company to build the Frankie’s website. Only once the fight began did Schmidt establish a Facebook presence and open a Twitter account. Now he’s a convert even trotting out the lingo:  “We trended on Twitter for two days and had three million hits.”

The Frankie’s founder and Woolies’ Moir haven’t agreed on much lately. But they have reached the same conclusion on the way Facebook and Twitter will change business. Says Schmidt: “Social media is becoming increasingly important in commerce and industry.” And his advice for other small businesses? “These new tools level the playing fields. I’ve learnt how critical it is for every business to protect their intellectual property rights. And now realize, also, that there are some very powerful mechanisms that can be used to fight back – you don’t have to go to court.” Not such great news for lawyers. But manna for thousands of entrepreneurs who felt powerless after being cheated by bigger rivals.

Invaluable face-time with SA's Planning Minister, WEF veteran Trevor Manuel in Moneyweb's Davos studio

Here’s something you won’t see everyday. Perhaps ever again. Coming back from an early breakfast this morning, a bespectacled figure risked limb on the icy roads, flashing past me at full tilt. Despite his effort, it didn’t gain much time as the security presence which guards Davos’s Congress Centre will halt the stride od even the most enthusiastic entrant.

From my vantage point a couple bodies back, I was delighted t see the runner was one of my heroes, superstar economist Nouriel Roubini. Obviously late for a podium contribution and despite being one of the WEF’s biggest audience-pullers, Roubini didn’t get any special favours at the checkpoint. The security blockage is one of only a few egalitarian aspects in a system whose appeal relies heavily on hierarchy. Reporting media prop up the pile. Then come the usually bemused debutants. All the way up to the halogen badged elite who share ideas in small groups with WEF founder Klaus Schwab.

Back to Roubini, there was something surreal about seeing an icon shedding his jackets for the x-ray machines. He who in 2008 warned of the economic meltdown while his peers were still enjoying the party. A man who rates so highly in our household we’ve named our best foal of 2011 after him (watch out for Roubini the horse on racetracks in 2014). But that’s Davos during the World Economic Forum. You never know who you’ll bump into next.

At a media leaders dinner last night, my wife Jet and I found ourselves at a ten-person table with UK Labour Party leader Ed Miliband. If that wasn’t enough, halfway through the meal in slides Silicon Valley shaker Sean Parker – the venture capitalist played by singer Justin Timberlake in the movie about Facebook. Sean’s attractive and very young companion suggested at least part of the movie’s portrayal of him was accurate.

The famous personalities add icing to the WEF cake. But even better for me is the chance to engage with many who shape the future of our own country. Where else would you get the chance to spend quality one-on-one time with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan – three weeks ahead of his National Budget Speech no less? Or a half hour discussing global economic affairs and thinking behind SA’s long-term plan with NPC Minister Trevor Manuel?

It’s astonishing to see we’re past the halfway mark of Davos 2012. It’s too early to reach any conclusions but already some key themes are apparent.

Davos has really missed the normal powerful Chinese contingent. It’s pretty certain the WEF will do its best to avoid another clash between the annual meetings and the Chinese New Year. It’s clear that to have any credibility, every debate on pretty much every subject here must take the world’s most populous nation into account. There are still a good number of Chinese participants – Caixin Media’s Friday morning breakfast retained last year’s high standard – but the absence of Government heavy hitters is noticeable.

There’s also growing focus on the younger generation and the technology they push into the mainstream. On top of a strong contingent of Young Global Leaders has this year been added 70 Young Global Shapers (among them charming Capetonian Rapelang Rabana), significantly dropping the average age of the participants. The generations might be talking past each other, especially when conversing about new media tools like Facebook and Twitter, but getting them into the same room is a start.

Africa’s appeal as an investment destination has also been a feature of Davos 2012. The Plenary featuring five African leaders was well attended. In smaller sessions, Africa’s appeal has come up in many conversations. Businessmen love bragging about their successes. The early adopters who have benefitted from the African Renaissance must be doing just that. And it looks like this is only the beginning. With Chinese wages rising between 15% and 20% a year, its being openly projected here that the Asian powerhouse will move 85 million manufacturing jobs to Africa in the next five years. The impact this will have on economic growth is hard to imagine.

As might be expected, Europe’s travails have also been discussed at length. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and to a lesser extent UK PM David Cameron have spoken boldly about the problems that need to be addressed. But there’s a general scepticism that European political leadership has yet reached the point where it has the will to actually take the touch decisions.

Overall, though, the mood has been subdued. But maybe that’s not all bad. It’s easier to identify problems when you’re sober. To actually move yourself tackle the tough stuff sometimes a touch of anxiety, a bit of paranoia. The mood at Davos 2012 suggests the world may well be at that point. Given the major structural challenges being faced, that’s not actually a bad place for it to be.